National housing trends

CREA 2026 Sales Forecast

CREA continues to forecast that national home sales will increase approximately 5% in 2026, reaching roughly 490,000–495,000 transactions nationwide.

This projected increase is expected to be driven by improved consumer confidence and stabilization in borrowing costs, particularly if mortgage rates remain steady.

Regional Housing Market Highlights

Overall Regional Context

Canada’s housing market entering February 2026 remains balanced but cautious, with sales gradually improving from late-2025 levels while prices show signs of stabilization rather than rapid appreciation.

Regional differences continue to shape the national picture, with Quebec and Prairie markets showing stronger relative resilience, while Ontario and British Columbia continue adjusting after previous price peaks.

Major Metro & Provincial Highlights

Western Canada – Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba

Western Canadian markets continue to benefit from strong population inflows, economic growth, and relatively affordable housing prices.

Cities such as Calgary and Edmonton continue to experience stronger demand compared with more expensive markets, while Prairie provinces maintain stable inventory levels.

Takeaway:
Western markets remain among the most resilient in Canada, with affordability continuing to attract buyers.

Atlantic Canada – Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI, Newfoundland & Labrador

Atlantic housing markets remain relatively stable, supported by continued migration from other provinces and relatively lower housing costs.

Prices have remained steady compared with larger metropolitan markets, though activity levels remain modest.

Takeaway:
Atlantic markets continue to show less volatility and steady housing demand, particularly in smaller urban centres.

Key Themes in Regional Differences

Balanced & Transitional Market

Across Canada, housing conditions entering February remain largely balanced, with moderate inventory levels and cautious buyer behaviour.

Regional Divergence Continues

Regional differences remain evident:

• Quebec and Prairie markets showing stronger stability
• Ontario and BC continuing to adjust following earlier price highs
• Atlantic Canada maintaining steady but slower-paced growth

Mortgage Rate Trends

Bank of Canada Policy Rate

February 2026 Context

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 2.25%, continuing the pause that began late in 2025.

Central bank commentary indicates that inflation remains close to the 2% target, allowing policymakers to keep rates stable while monitoring economic conditions.

The prime lending rate remains approximately 4.45%, which continues to influence variable mortgage pricing.

Current Mortgage Rates (February 2026)

Fixed Mortgage Rates

Best available 5-year fixed mortgage rates remain roughly between 3.80% and 4.00%, depending on lender promotions and borrower qualifications.

Variable Mortgage Rates

Competitive 5-year variable mortgage rates remain near 3.30%–3.55%, reflecting the stable policy rate environment.

Bond Yields & Their Influence

5-Year Government of Canada Bond Yield

The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield has remained near ~2.9%–3.0% in early February 2026, reflecting relatively stable expectations for inflation and economic growth.

Because fixed mortgage rates are closely linked to these bond yields, stable bond markets have helped keep fixed mortgage pricing relatively steady.

Near-Term Outlook & Forecast

Policy Rate Expectations (2026)

Economists generally expect the Bank of Canada to maintain the 2.25% policy rate for much of 2026, unless inflation deviates significantly from expectations.

Mortgage Rate Forecasts

Mortgage rate forecasts suggest:

• Fixed rates may fluctuate moderately depending on bond yield movements
  • Variable rates will remain closely tied to BoC policy decisions

Overall, mortgage rates are expected to remain relatively stable through much of 2026.

Economic Indicators

GDP Growth (Economic Activity)

Canada’s economic outlook continues to point to modest growth through 2026.

Forecasts suggest real GDP growth between roughly 1.1% and 1.6%, supported by consumer spending, government investment, and improving labour markets.

Inflation (Price Levels & Pressures)

Inflation remains close to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, with core inflation indicators gradually moderating.

This environment has allowed the central bank to maintain current interest rate levels while monitoring economic developments.

Housing Inventory (Supply Conditions)

Inventory levels remain moderately higher than last year, though still within historical norms.

National listings remain below long-term seasonal averages, indicating that supply constraints still influence housing affordability in some regions.

The sales-to-new-listings ratio continues to hover around the balanced range of 50–55%, suggesting neither buyers nor sellers have a strong advantage nationally.

Bond & Mortgage Market Rates

5-Year Government Bond Yields

Bond yields continue to trade within a relatively stable range of approximately 2.8%–3.1%.

Future movements will depend on:

• inflation trends
  • global economic developments
  • central bank policy expectations

5-Year Mortgage Rate Trends

Average 5-year fixed mortgage rates remain near 4.6%–4.7% nationally, reflecting lender pricing adjustments and stable bond yields.

Although borrowing costs remain higher than pandemic lows, rate stability has helped improve predictability for buyers and refinancers.